Friday, December 2, 2011

Rockies grooming a promising crop of prospects

Less than five years ago, the Colorado Rockies were atop the organizational food chain as the National League's representative in the 2007 World Series.
Carried by a fearsome lineup of both rising stars and cagey veterans, the Rockies could hit with any team in the league and had enough timely pitching to send them to the fall classic.
Key contributors from that team like Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe and Jeff Francis have all departed, leaving Colorado without a playoff appearance since 2007.
The lineup remains strong for Colorado with Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Todd Helton still producing--but the pitching staff has not been able to come together in a notoriously friendly ballpark for hitters.
That could all change soon for the Rockies who last year fully committed to the rebuilding process, bringing in a number of highly regarded young arms via trade that could all contribute very soon.
The first move was getting two prized arms from Cleveland in Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for a disgruntled Ubaldo Jimenez, two hurlers who could both be a part of the 2012 rotation for the Rockies.
Colorado clearly wasn't content with adding just two arms to the mix, as they completed a trade for one of the Angels top pitching prospects Tyler Chatwood.
In that deal, the Rockies sent catcher Chris Iannetta to the Angels for Chatwood, another arm that will likely be a cog in the 2012 rotation.
It may take a few years for the group to hit their stride, but once they do Colorado may have one of the better young nucleaus in the league.
Here is a look at several players who Colorado is developing to be a big part of the Rockies future.

1. Drew Pomeranz (LHP)
*The key piece in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade with Cleveland, Pomeranz is a former first-rounder of the Indians who could be a front of the rotation starter in the future for Colorado.
Drafted out of the University of Mississippi, Pomeranz led the Southeastern Conference in ERA (2.21) and strikeouts (134) as a junior before being drafted.
His success continued last season in the minors, going a combined 4-3 with 1.78 ERA for three different minor league teams.
After being acquired by Colorado, Pomeranz pitched 10 scoreless innings in Triple-A which was enough to earn a promotion to the big leagues in September.
With the Rockies searching for pitching, look for Pomeranz to be a key factor in the rotation in 2012 and beyond.

2. Nolan Arenado (3B)
*Drafted by the Rockies in 2009 in the second-round, Arenado has hit well at every minor league level and may finally be ready to take over third base in Colorado next season.
Still just 20 years old, Arenado's bat has proven to be mature beyond his years as he led the organization with 122 RBIs in Single-A, adding 20 homeruns and a .298 batting average.
As an encore, he was named the MVP of the 2011 Arizona Fall League which included names like Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Wil Myers.
If his success translates to the major league level, the Rockies may have one of the best left sides of the infield with the perenial All-Star Tulowitski and the up and coming Arenado.

3. Wilin Rosario (C)
*The Rockies appear ready to give Rosario the starting catching job very soon, a decision that was all but confirmed on Wednesday when the team traded starting backstop Chris Iannetta to the Angels for pitcher Tyler Chatwood.
While Colorado also signed catcher Ramon Hernandez to a short-term deal, Rosario may be kept on the major league roster in 2012 to spell the aging Hernandez a few times a week.
Rosario has been at the plate in the minors, but may be even more impressive behind the plate having thrown out 40.6 percent of potential basestealers last year.
In the friendly hitting confines of Coors field, Rosario could eventually be a catcher with the potential to hit 20-plus home runs a year while providing solid defense behind the dish.
Those qualities have Colorado very excited about his future and equally anxious to find out about his current capabilities for the big league club.

4. Tim Wheeler (OF)
*An extremely productive college player out of Sacramento State, Wheeler fell to 32nd overall in the 2009 draft but has proven to be one of the better hitters in the '09 class.
Last season was Wheeler's breakout year, hitting 33 home runs and driving in 86--he also stole 21 bases and finished with a .900 OPS en route to becoming a Texas League All-Star.
While he probably isn't in the Rockies plans for 2012, Wheeler's bat could force them to give him a look as a September call-up or potentially sooner if injuries arise.
Either way, Wheeler is likely to make his presence felt in Colorado in the very near future.

5. Kyle Parker (OF)
*A versatile athlete who is the only player to throw 20 touchdown passes and hit 20 home runs in Division I history, Parker chose baseball coming out of the University of Clemson and put up solid offensive numbers in Single-A last season.
In 445 at-bats, Parker hit .285 with 21 home runs and 95 RBIs in a favorable offensive park by minor league standards (Asheville).
If Parker can cut down on his 133 strikeouts as he climbs the minor league ladder, the Rockies could have another power bat in the outfield along with Wheeler set to arrive by 2013.

Projected 2013 Lineup:
2B Eric Young Jr.
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Jordan Pacheco
3B Nolan Arenado
C Wilin Rosario
RF Tim Wheeler
P (Pitchers Spot)

Projected 2013 Rotation:
1. Drew Pomeranz
2. Tyler Chatwood
3. Jhoulys Chacin
4. Alex White
5. Christian Friedrich/Tyler Matzek

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Five Sleeper Prospects Rising Fast

None of the five players on this list were ranked anywhere in Baseball America's Top-100 Prospects entering the 2011 season. That could very well change in 2012 as all five had standout offensive seasons and were added to their team's 40-man roster.
Three of them happen to be Padres, at least suggesting the future may be a bit brighter in San Diego down the road considering the other young players they have on the way. Given their productivity in the minors, keep an eye on all five for the 2012 season and beyond.

1. Jedd Gyorko (3B) San Diego Padres
*2011 Stats: 576 at-bats/.333 AVG/25 HR/114 RBI
*Started season in Single-A, finished the year in Double-A
*Hitting better than .400 in the Arizona Fall League

2. Tyler Moore (1B) Washington Nationals
*2011 Stats: 519 at-bats/.270 AVG/31 HR/90 RBI
*Played all of 2011 in Double-A--added to Nationals 40-man roster for 2012
*Former 16th round pick in 2008 has hit 30 home runs or more last two seasons (31 in 2010)

4. Mason Williams (OF) New York Yankees
*2011 Stats: 269 at-bats/.349 AVG/3 HR/31 RBI/28 SB
*Played rookie league and low levels of Single-A in 2011
*Drafted in the fourth round in 2010 out of high school, will be 20-years old in 2012

3. Joe Wieland (RHP) San Diego Padres
*2011 Stats: (13-4) W-L/1.97 ERA/155 2/3 IP/150 K
*Was traded from TEX to SD in Mike Adams deal--finished season in Double-A
*Posted 11 wins last season, originally drafted by TEX in the fourth round in 2008

5. Rymer Liriano (OF) San Diego Padres
*2011 Stats: 510 at-bats/.298 AVG/12 HR/68 RBI/66 SB
*Played two levels of Single-A ball in 2011
*Signed as an undrafted free-agent and recently added to San Diego's 40-man roster

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Baseball America's top prospects of the past five years (2006-2010)

Following the careers of former highly ranked prospects is often a good way to formulate more accurate rankings for the present and future. Talent can be over hyped or under appreciated for a variety of reasons, but using hindsight to review what type of players thrived at the major league level helps make future projections.
While Baseball America is an incredibly detailed and thorough publication, even they often overlook or overrate various prospects due to their place in the draft, tools or current organization. Players like Ryan Braun, Joey Votto and Jacoby Ellsbury weren't even considered top-25 prospects as recently as a few years ago, yet they have risen to become some of the game's brightest starts.
There have also been plenty of overrated players who haven't nearly reached expectations set by their respective clubs after they were drafted and/or signed. Pitchers like Homer Bailey, Andrew Miller and Franklin Morales tend to dominate the list--but there are also plenty of positional players to consider--Brandon Wood, Travis Snyder and Dexter Fowler are just a few who haven't lived up to their billings.
Here is a look at how Baseball America has ranked prospects the last five years,n followed by analysis of how some of their projections have turned out.

2006

Baseball America's Top Five in 2006:
1. Delmon Young (OF)--Young has time to reach his full potential but hasn't been close
2. Justin Upton (OF)--Has lived up to the hype and could be one of the best power hitters in the NL
3. Brandon Wood (SS)--Once thought to be the next Cal Ripken Jr. by an opposing coach--not exactly
4. Jeremy Hermida (OF)--Injuries have held him back but even when healthy is nowhere near a top-5
5. Stephen Drew (SS)--Has been a solid SS for Arizona but not the perennial All-Star they were hoping

Overrated in 2006:
#1,3,4,5: Only Justin Upton looks like he could end up being worthy of his top-5 billing in 2006
#9. Lastings Milledge (OF)--Ranked ahead of Matt Cain, Prince Fielder and many others in 2006
#14. Andy Marte (3B)--Thought to have 30+ home run potential, never was able to hit for average

Underrated in 2006:
#25. Troy Tulowitzki (SS)--Whom would you rather have? Tulowitzki or Drew? Not a tough decision
#30. Hanley Ramirez (SS)--Tools alone should have garnered a higher grade--future MVP candidate
#49. Ryan Braun (OF)--Never was a "can't miss prospect." Now is a "can't miss" major leaguer
#57. Jared Weaver (RHP)--Came into his own in 2011 and could be a force in the AL for the Angels
#68. Cole Hamels (LHP)--Lightly regarded prospect in '06 is now a cog in the best MLB rotation
#89: Andre Ethier (OF)--Becoming one of the purest hitters in the game but wasn't on the radar in '06
#96. Matt Kemp (OF)--Signed a $160 million dollar contract and threatened the triple crown in 2011.

2007

Baseball America's Top Five in 2007:
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP)--Japanese import has been oft injured in Boston--career in jeopardy
2. Alex Gordon (3B)--Has started to blossom recently but still hasn't lived up to former top-5 billing
3. Delmon Young (OF)--Didn't work out with TB or Minn. long-term, may have a home in Detroit
4. Phillip Hughes (RHP)--Yankees still hoping he can be the prospect they were hoping for
5. Homer Bailey (RHP)--As close to a bust as it gets, Bailey has to hope for a career turnaround

Overrated in 2007:
#8. Brandon Wood (SS)--Ranked seven spots ahead of Troy Tulowitzki in '07--enough said
#10. Andrew Miller (LHP)--Former first rounder from UNC is yet to establish himself anywhere
#19 Andy LaRoche (3B)--Top prospect with the Dodgers is hoping to get second chance for Pirates

Underrated in 2007:
#11. Tim Lincecum (RHP)--Ranked behind Matsuzaka, Hughes, Bailey and Miller in 2007
#24 Clayton Kershaw (LHP)--2011 Cy Young winner was just another young lefty a few years ago
#33 Jacoby Ellsbury (OF)--Was ranked behind 11 other outfielders in '07--things changed quickly
#63 Miguel Montero (C)--Has become one of the best offensive catchers in the NL for the D-backs


2008

Baseball America's Top Five in 2008:
1. Jay Bruce (OF)--Starting to develop into a legitimate 40 home run threat with other plus tools
2. Evan Longoria (3B)--Cornerstone of the Rays lineup has had more than a few big hits in the show
3. Joba Chamberlain (RHP)--Has been up and down since rookie season but needs to stay healthy
4. Clay Buchholz (RHP)--Has been one of the more reliable starters in Boston for a few years now
5. Colby Rasmus (OF)--Loaded arsenal of tools allowed him to shoot through St. Louis organization

Overrated in 2008:
#8. Franklin Morales (LHP)--Had strong showings early in career for COL, not much since
#9. Homer Bailey (RHP)--Highly regarded pitching prospect for years never materialized for the Reds
#20. Fernando Martinez (OF)--Dominican signing is yet to make an impact at the major league level

Underrated in 2008:
#22. Carlos Gonzalez (OF)--Has put up better numbers to start career than Bruce and Rasmus.
#41. Austin Jackson (OF)--Former Yankees prospect has thrived in Detroit with his speed and glove
#44. Joey Votto (1B)--Didn't break the top-40 in '09 but could be an MVP candidate for years

#100. Drew Stubbs (OF)--Barely made the list in '09 but has put up solid numbers in CF for the Reds



2009

Baseball America's Top Five in 2009:
1. Matt Wieters (C)--Has turned out to be a solid backstop for Baltimore with a bright future
2. David Price (LHP)--From top prospect to top of the Tampa Bay rotation
3. Colby Rasmus (OF)--Didn't work out in St. Louis but still could be a force in Toronto if he stays
4. Tommy Hanson (RHP)--When healthy, one of the better right-handers in the National League
5. Jason Heyward (OF)--Runner up for rookie of the year in 2010 had minor sophomore slump

Overrated in 2009:
#6. Travis Snider (OF)--Hasn't lived up to his top-10 billing, may be out of a starting job in Toronto
#8. Cameron Maybin (OF)--Floundered in Florida but may have a rebirth in the making in San Diego
#15: Dexter Fowler (OF)--Still trying to land an everyday job in Colorado--could be on the way out

Underrated in 2009:
#16. Mike Stanton (OF)--Ranked behind Snider, Maybin and Fowler to name a few--not anymore
#33 Andrew McCuthen (OF)--Didn't break the top-30 in 2009 but has become a five-tool threat
#81. Brett Lawrie (IF)--Started in the Brewers organization but had a great rookie year in Toronto
#87. Freddie Freeman (1B)--Hard to imagine a rookie of the year candidate could be buried at No. 87
#97: Gio Gonzalez (LHP)--Barely broke the top-100 in '09--one of the best lefties in the A.L in 2012


2010

Baseball America's Top Five in 2010:
1. Jason Heyward (OF)--If not for Buster Posey's great rookie season, would have been 2010 R.O.Y.
2. Stephen Strasburg (RHP)--Sensational debut was cut short by injury but no doubt he can pitch
3. Mike Stanton (OF)--Five tools + great numbers + tremendous work ethic = Potential Hall of Famer
4. Jesus Montero (C)--Future replacement for Jorge Posada has been a force at the plate in the minors
5. Brian Matusz (LHP)--Hasn't dominated since being called up by Baltimore but is still learning

Overrated in 2010:
#8. Pedro Alvarez (3B)--Started the season with the Pirates but hit around .200 before being demoted
#12. Alcides Escobar (SS)--No doubt he can play defense but was ranked ahead of Starlin Castro
#23. Tyler Matzek (LHP)--Rockies First-round pick has been getting knocked around in the minors

Underrated in 2010:
#35. Matt Moore (LHP)--Once an eighth-round pick, Moore has jumped 30 spots since last year's list
#32. Freddie Freeman (1B)--For the second year in a row, Atlanta has a R.O.Y candidate on offense
#45 Yonder Alonso (1B)--May be traded with Votto at first for the Reds, but proved he can hit in '11
#51 Julio Teheran (RHP)--Didn't break the top-50 in '10 but shot to top-10 after 15 wins in the minors
#85. Mike Trout (OF)--Now a top-3 prospect, Trout is just a year removed from being near the end

Friday, November 25, 2011

2012 MLB prospect positional rankings

Right Handed Pitcher:
1. Shelby Miller (STL)
2. Julio Teheran (ATL)
3. Jacob Turner (DET)
4. Jameson Taillon (PIT)
5. Zack Wheeler (NYM)

Left Handed Pitcher:
1. Matt Moore (TB)
2. Tyler Skaggs (ARI)
3. Drew Pomeranz (COL)
4. Martin Perez (TEX)
5. Manny Banuelos (NYY)

Catchers:
1. Jesus Montero (SEA)
2. Devin Mesoraco (CIN)
3. Travis D'Arnaud (TOR)
4. Yasmani Grandal (SD)
5. Tony Sanchez (PIT)

First Basemen:
1. Yonder Alonso (SD)
2. Jonathan Singleton (HOU)
3. Anthony Rizzo (SD)
4. Chris Carter (OAK)
5. Tyler Moore (WAS)

Second Basemen:
1. Billy Hamilton (CIN)
2. Scooter Gennett (MIL)
3. Delino Deshields Jr. (HOU)
4. Jean Segura (LAA)
5. Eddie Rosario (MIN)

Third Basemen:
1. Miguel Sano (MIN)
2. Nolan Arenado (COL)
3. Jedd Gyorko (SD)
4. Josh Vitters (CHC)
5.Zack Cox (STL)

Shortstops:
1. Manny Machado (BAL)
2. Jurickson Profar (TEX)
3. Grant Green (OAK)
4. Wilmer Flores (NYM)
5. Christian Colon (KC)

Corner Outfield:
1. Bryce Harper (WAS)
2. Will Meyers (KC)
3. Joe Benson (MIN)
4. Brandon Guyer (TB)
5. Christian Yelich (FLA)

Centerfielders:
1. Mike Trout (LAA)
2. Gary Brown (SF)
3. Brett Jackson (CHC)
4. Starling Marte (PIT)
5. Aaron Hicks (MIN)

The five best minor league organizations in baseball

Atlanta Braves
Top Five Prospects:
1. Julio Teheran (RHP)
2. Randall Delgado (RHP)
3. Arodys Vizcaino (RHP)
4. Christian Bethancourt (C)
5. Tyler Pastornicky (SS)

Tampa Bay Rays
Top Five Prospects:
1. Matt Moore (LHP)
2. Chris Archer (RHP)
3. Brandon Guyer (OF)
4. Tim Beckham (SS)
5. Hak-Ju Lee (SS)

Washington Nationals
Top Five Prospects:
1. Bryce Harper (OF)
2. Brad Peacock (RHP)
3. Tyler Moore (1B)
4. Sammy Solis (LHP)
5. A.J. Cole (RHP)

Cincinnati Reds
Top Five Prospets:
1. Yonder Alonso (1B)
2. Devin Mesoraco (C)
3. Billy Hamilton (SS)
4. Yasmani Grandal (C)
5. Juan Francisco (3B)

Pittsburgh Pirates
Top Five Prospects:
1. Jameson Taillon (RHP)
2. Starling Marte (OF)
3. Tony Sanchez (C)
4. Stetson Allie (RHP)
5. Matt Hague (1B)

Monday, November 21, 2011

Mets have a promising trio of starters hurling their way to New York

If the Mets hope to compete in the talented National League East in the near future, their success will hinge on the development of three highly regarded arms climbing the ladder of the minor league system.
Last season was a clear indication the major league club is depleted in the pitching department, ranking 13th in the National League with a team ERA of 4.19.
Only the Cubs, Rockies and Astros had worse pitching numbers as a team, leaving the door wide open for competition come spring training 2012.
Dillon Gee was a pleasant surprise for New York with 13 wins, while R.A. Dickey somehow continues to pitch better with age.
Johan Santana should be at full strength come 2012, giving the Mets at least the ace starter they lacked for most of 2011.
While the current Mets rotation is hardly one of the most dominant staffs in the majors, one could argue they have the most talented trio of minor league starters on the brink of being major league ready.
Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Familia all posted strong minor league numbers in 2011 and continue to ascend through the organization, waiting for their respective turn to try and mend a battered New York rotation.
A first round pick out of North Carolina in 2010, Harvey breezed through his first assignment in St. Lucie (A), going 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA.
The impressive pro debut resulted in a promotion to Binghamton (AA) where Harvey finished the season, posting a 13-5 mark with a 3.32 ERA between the two levels.
His dominance was also exemplified by 156 strikeouts in 135 2/3 innings, walking just 47 batters during that span for a strikeout/walk ratio better than 3:1.
Look for Harvey to start the season in Buffalo (AAA), but if he continues to dominate minor league batters he could get a shot at breaking the rotation at some point in 2012.
Another impressive prospect for the Mets also finished the season in Binghamton (AA) and struck out 10.2 batters per nine innings--giving New York two hurlers in their system who have struck out more than a batter per inning while in the organization.
Getting six starts for St. Lucie (A) was all Jeurys Familia needed to get a promotion, posting a 1.49 ERA during that time before moving to Binghamton (AA).
His success continued there as the 22-year old finished the season 4-4 with a 3.49 ERA, giving him an overall ERA of 2.90 in 124 innings pitched.
His strikeout totals weren't quite as impressive as Harvey's, but Familia still whiffed 132 batters in those 124 innings between two levels.
With Harvey and Familia going into the 2011 season, the Mets were thrilled to add another front line pitching prospect before the trading deadline when the San Francisco Giants offered former first round pick Zack Wheeler for outfielder Carlos Beltran.
Wheeler was 7-5 for San Jose (A) at the time of the trade with a 3.99 ERA, but lowered his ERA to 2.00 in six start for St. Lucie (A) once joining the Mets organization.
Already having two starters who struck out more than a batter per inning in minor league duty last season, Wheeler becomes the third Mets' pitching prospect to post such numbers, striking out 129 in 115 innings pitched.
It's only a matter of time before the Mets give each one their turn to debut in New York, a time that may be sooner rather than later if the pitching continues to perform at last year's level.
If Harvey, Familia and Wheeler can all live up to the billing, New York could have three front of the rotation horses on their hands with Johan Santana still under contract and set to return in 2012.
The temptation the organization must fight is rushing top arms too soon to the major leagues, but the Mets should have enough short term solutions with Santana, Gee, Dickey, Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese.
Don't look for New York to compete in 2012 with talented division rivals like Philadelphia, Atlanta and Florida--but with three top pitching prospects likely to arrive around 2013 or sooner, the Mets will have the pitching in place to complete for a long time in the National League East.

Projected 2013 New York Mets Pitching Rotation:

1. Johan Santana
2. Matt Harvey
3. Zack Wheeler
4. Dillon Gee
5. Jeurys Familia

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Can Theo Epstein end another historic world series drought in Chicago? It will start with rebuilding a barren minor league system

Having a hand in both of the Boston Red Sox World Series titles, new Chicago Cubs general manager has already publicly stated that he believes the Cubs success will come primarily from rebuilding their minor league system--a system that has been depleted by trades and poor drafts in recent years.
One such trade happened last off season when the Cubs parted ways with a hand full of top prospects in order to acquire a front of the rotation starter in Matt Garza.
To land the right-hander, Chicago had to give up outfielders Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, as well as pitcher Chris Archer--all of whom were among the organizations best performers.
All four of the prospects Chicago gave up have either already made their major league debut for Tampa Bay or are very close to doing so. Garza will have to pitch much better than he did during his first season with the Cubs, or it could be a trade Chicago regrets down the road.
While that trade alone sent away four of the Cubs top prospects, Epstein is hoping a few notable names on the horizon can be the key to breaking another World Series curse in Chicago.

Here are five Cubs prospects that will be key pieces in the rebuilding effort Epstein envisions.

1. Josh Vitters (3B)
*Could be the replacement for Aramis Ramirez at third base in 2012 if he signs with another team
*Hit .283 with 14 home runs and 81 RBIs in 2011
*Right-handed hitter could see power numbers flourish in Chicago with short porch in left field
2. Andrew Cashner (RHP)
*Has been a highly regarded arm in the organization since being a first round pick in 2008
*Will be key part of Cubs 2012 rotation as he tries to improve upon mediocre start to MLB career
*Has everything needed to be one of the Cubs best starters in the near future, only experience lacks
3. Brett Jackson (CF)
*Athletic outfielder hit 20 home runs in 2011 between two minor league levels
*Former Cal standout, likely future replacement in centerfield for Marlon Byrd.
*Strong spring could entice Chicago to give Jackson a spot in the 2012 lineup
4. D.J. LeMahieu (SS/2B)
*Former second round pick out of LSU, has hit over .300 in each of last two pro seasons
*Batted .319 with five home runs and 50 RBIs between two levels in 2011
*Not likely to play shortstop in Chicago with incumbent Starlin Castro-could end up at 2B or even OF
5. Robbie Whitenack (RHP)
*Has surprised organization with development since being eighth round pick
*Ended season with injury, but was 7-0 with a 1.93 ERA between two lower minor league levels
*Has posted far better numbers than other cubs pitching prospects (Trey McNutt, Chris Carpenter etc)

Projected 2013 Cubs Lineup:
2B Darwin Barney
LF Matt Szczur
SS Starlin Castro
3B Josh Vitters
RF Tyler Colvin
CF Brett Jackson
C Gary Sanchez (via trade)
1B D.J. LeMahieu
SP (Pitchers Spot)

*If the Cubs could find a way to ship Alfonso Soriano back to New York--where he broke into the big leagues--the Yankees may part with a young catcher named Gary Sanchez who is stuck in a crowded catching situation in the New York system (Jesus Montero, Austin Romine). The Yankees always seem to acquire extra bats and are one of the few teams that could afford his contract, making this deal seem at least somewhat realistic in my mind. The Cubs need a long-term replacement for Geovani Soto and don't seem to have that player in their minor league system at the moment.

Projected 2013 Pitching Rotation:
1. Matt Garza
2. Andrew Cashner
3. Jeff Samardzija
4. Robbie Whitenack
5. Rafael Dolis

*This is what the future Cubs rotation could look like if Epstein commits to building from within the organization. I expect him to sign at least one free agent pitcher this off season, but he may stay put and  pool funds to make a run at a Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain of the Giants, who both become free agents at the end of next season.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Tampa Bay Rays Organization Reveiw: Top 25 Prospects entering 2012

We have already seen the Rays minor league system pay dividends in recent years, producing stars like David Price, Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, to name just a few. Their success drafting and developing players is the only reason Tampa Bay can complete with financial goliaths like the Yankees and Red Sox, given the Rays don't have even a third of the payroll New York and Boston operate with every offseason. Here are 25 more players on the horizon for Tampa Bay, prospects who may very well be a part of the Rays future as one of the few successful low-budget teams.
2012 Tampa Bay Rays
Top 25 Prospects:
1. Matt Moore (LHP)
2. Brandon Guyer (OF)
3. Tim Beckham (SS)
4. Chris Archer (RHP)
5. Alex Torres (RHP)
6. Stephen Vogt (C)
7. Hak-Ju Lee (SS)
8. Drew Vettleson (OF)
9. Alex Cobb (RHP)
10. Josh Sale (OF)
11. Alex Colome (RHP)
12. Derek Dietrich (SS)
13. Roberto Gomez (RHP)
14. Henry Wrigley (1B)
15. Phillip Wunderlich (1B)
16. Mikie Mahtook (OF)*
17. Tyler Bortnick (SS/2B)
18. Victor Mateo (P)
19. Kyle Lobstein (P)
20. Justin O’ Connor (C)
21. Taylor Guerrieri (RHP)*
22. Tyler Goeddel (3B)*
23. Lennie Linsky (RHP)*
24. Kes Carter (OF)*
25. Jake Hager (SS)*

*2011 draft-pick

Key prospects and overachievers added to 40-man rosters across MLB

Being named to the 40-man roster of any professional team is a benchmark accomplishment for prospects hoping to one day play in the major leagues.
The decision means that they will either have the opportunity to compete for a spot on the final 25-man roster that is finalized at the end of spring training. It also means the player is eligible to be called up by the major league team during the season even if the player does not initially make the 25-man roster out of spring training.
Conversely, if a player is not on a team's 40-man roster they cannot be called up to the major leagues regardless of how successful they have been in the minor leagues. With fast rising prospects and annual overachievers, it is increasingly important for a team to be selective when putting together the 40-man roster, being careful not to miss players who could be on the verge of being ready for the next level.
Here are a few key names that were added to 40-man rosters across the MLB earlier this week, several of which could have significant impacts with their respective clubs in 2012.

1. Josh Vitters/3B (Cubs)
  • If Aramis Ramirez signs elsewhere, Vitters could step in as Chicago's third baseman of the future in 2012. Hit .283 with 14 home runs and 81 RBIs for Tennessee (AA) in 2011.

2. Rymer Liriano/OF (Padres)
  • Stole 66 bases between two levels of the Padres organization in 2011, also flashed pop with 12 home runs and 68 RBI. Speedy outfielder could be in the San Diego mix with impressive spring.

3. Tyler Moore/1B (Nationals)
  • Has crushed everything thrown his way the last two years, hitting 31 home runs in each of the past two seasons. Drove in 111 in 2010, 90 more RBIs in 2011 moving from (A) to (AA).

4.Wilmer Flores/SS (Mets)
  • Still just 20 years old, Flores may be the eventual replacement for Jose Reyes in New York, who appears he will sign with either the Marlins or Brewers. Flores hit .269 with nine home runs and 81 RBIs in 2011 for St. Lucie (A) and could get a look in spring training for the Mets at SS.

5. Cesar Puello/OF (Mets)
  • Another 20-year old in the Mets system, Puello projects as a power hitting outfielder with above average speed. Stole 45 bases in 2010 and likely will develop more power than his 10 home runs last season indicate.

6. Oswaldo Arcia/OF (Twins)
  • Jumped on the Twins radar after hitting .375 in 2010, followed up with a solid 2011 season that was capped by a September call-up. Very close to being an everyday outfielder in Minnesota.

7. Stephen Vogt/C (Rays)
  • Had 105 RBIs between two levels in the Rays system in 2011. Added a .298 average with 17 home runs, finished the season in Durham (AAA). His bat could earn him a spot in Tampa soon.

8. Travis D'Arnaud/C (Blue Jays)
  • Hit for average and power for New Hampshire (AA), blasting 21 home runs while hitting at a clip of .311 in 466 at-bats. With J.P Arencibia tabbed as the catcher of the future in Toronto, D'Arnaud may have to switch positions for the Jays to utilize his bat.

9. Derek Norris/C (Nationals)
  • Another catcher who has a talented youngster ahead of him in Washington (Wilson Ramos). Purely a power hitter who has struggled to hit for average, Norris could serve as late inning pop off the bench and spell Ramos once or twice a week if he wins the backup job in spring.

10. Phillippe Aumont/P (Phillies)
  • Posted a 2.68 ERA in 53 2/3 innings pitched between two levels in 2011. Finished the season in Lehigh Valley (AAA) and could be a part of the bullpen in Philly as soon as 2012.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Jeremy Hellickson, Craig Kimbrel named 2011 Rookies of the Year

2011 A.L. Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson (RHP) Tampa Bay
*13-10 W-L/2.95 ERA/1.15 WHIP

2011 N.L. Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel (CL) Atlanta Braves
*46 Saves (MLB record)/2.10 ERA/127 Strikeouts

 Honorable Mention:
*Mark Trumbo (1B) Angels
*Brett Lawrie (IF) Blue Jays
*Freddie Freeman (1B) Braves

Arizona Fall League Update

Several of baseball's top prospects are playing in the Arizona Fall League, the premiere offseason location for players on the verge of breaking big league rosters. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Will Meyers and dozens of other highly regarded youngsters have already begun to get a taste of the next level, facing an assortment of players who either have or will make their major league debut soon. Here is a look at ten players who have had great seasons despite the constant buzz surrounding Harper and Trout.

1. Mike Olt (3B) Rangers
*.344 AVG/12 HR/39 RBIs in 93 AFL at-bats (leads league in home runs and RBIs)

2. Jedd Gyorko (3B) Padres
*.437 AVG/5 HR/22 RBI in 71 AFL at-bats (highest batting average in the AFL)

3. Robbie Grossman (OF) Pirates
*.375 AVG/7 HR/22 RBI in 107 AFL at-bats

4. Nolan Arenado (3B/1B) Rockies
*.391 AVG/6 HR/33 RBI in 110 AFL at-bats

5. Will Meyers (OF) Royals
*.380 AVG/4 HR/13 RBI in 79 AFL at-bats

6. Josh Vitters (OF/3B) Cubs
*341 AVG/4 HR/16 RBI in 88 AFL at-bats

7. Michael Choice (OF) A's
*.318 AVG/6 HR/18 RBI in 66 AFL at-bats

8. Mikie Mahtook (OF) Rays
*.344 AVG/2 HR/12 RBI in 61 AFL at-bats

9. Derek Norris (C) Nationals
*.304 AVG/2 HR/11 RBI in 69 AFL at-bats

10. Joe Panik (SS) Giants
*321 AVG/2 HR/10 RBI in 81 AFL at-bats

Padres have plenty of help on the way

Having traded centerpiece players like Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy over the past few seasons, the Padres have restocked their minor league system and have a bevy of players on the verge of making an impact at the major league level.
San Diego also added two pitching prospects this season before the deadline, sending away reliever Mike Adams to Texas for minor leaguers Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin.
Both pitchers were highly regarded in the Ranger organization and will have a chance to compete for a rotation spot for San Diego in the near future.
Last season saw the Padres finish last in the National League West standings, playing without the departed Gonzalez at first base and a patchwork roster across the board.
The Padres did get a look at first baseman Anthony Rizzo who was part of the Gonzalez trade, but in 128 at-bats Rizzo managed to hit just .141 with one home run and still maintains his rookie status going into 2012.
More can be expected of Rizzo next season as he adjusts to major league pitching, as he is only a year removed from a minor league season that saw him hit .331 with 26 home runs and 101 RBIs.
Also on the horizon is starting pitcher Casey Kelley, who was the other frontline prospect in the Gonzalez deal. Playing the 2011 season in San Antonio (AA), Kelly went 11-6 with a 3.98 ERA and could get a shot in spring training to break the major league roster.
Several other players have bolted up the organizational rankings with standout seasons in 2011, most notably Jedd Gyorko and Rymer Liriano.
Gyorko is a stalky third baseman who has done nothing but hit at every minor league level since being drafted in the second round out of West Virginia. The right hander hit .333 with 25 home runs and 114 RBIs between two minor league levels in 2011 and is currently leading the Arizona Fall League in batting average with a plus .400 mark.
With incumbent third baseman Chase Headley being mentioned recently in trade discussions, the Padres may feel more comfortable parting ways with him if Gyorko continues his pace at the plate.
The other prospect who opened eyes within the organization was Liriano, a speedy outfielder who improved his average by nearly 60 points from a season ago.
Hitting .298 in 510 at-bats, Liriano also had 12 home runs to go along with 68 RBIs. Liriano's speed was on full display all season long-- as he more than doubled his stolen base total from a year ago. His 66 stolen bases in 2011 was the most in the organization.
Still a few years away, Liriano will begin his climb up the organizational ladder as the Padres watch how he adjusts to higher levels of competition. He will likely start the 2012 season in San Antonio (AA) but could be on the Padres radar for a spring training invite.
Liriano has now jumped former first round pick and fellow outfielder Donovan Tate, who has battled injuries since being drafted and has not had much production to speak of in the minors.
Another outfielder who is likely closest to the majors for San Diego is Jaff Decker, a power-hitting left hander who blasted 19 home runs in 496 minor league at-bats for San Antonio (AA).
While Petco Park isn't exactly a haven for left handed hitters, Dacker has enough power to be at least a legitamate doubles hitter with the large gaps and allies in San Diego.
He could easily be in the 2012 outfield mix for the Padres, as Cameron Maybin, Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Jeremy Hermida and Aaron Cunningham return to compete for jobs that are mostly up for grabs.
Here is a look at the Padres top prospects within the organization, with a look at what the roster may look like a few years down the road as San Diego develops their young talent.

Padres Top 10 Prospects:

1. Casey Kelley (RHP)
2. Jedd Gyorko (3B)
3. Anthony Rizzo (1B/3B)
4. Joe Wieland (RHP)
5. Jaff Decker (OF)

6. Robbie Erlin (LHP)
7. Simon Castro (RHP)
8. Rymer Liriano (OF)
9. Jason Haggerty (C)
10. Donovan Tate (OF)

Projected Lineup: 2012-2015
CF Cameron Maybin
SS Jason Bartlett
1B Anthony Rizzo
LF Kyle Blanks
3B Jedd Gyorko
RF Jaff Decker
C Jason Haggerty
2B Logan Forsythe

Projected Rotation: 2012-2015
1. Matt Latos
2. Cory Luebke
3. Casey Kelley
4. Joe Wieland
5. Robbie Erlin

Could the Braves have another "Big Three" in the brewing?

Few teams in MLB history have enjoyed the type of success the Atlanta Braves experienced during the 1990s, winning 14 consecutive National League East titles behind manager Bobby Cox and the decade's best trio of staring pitchers. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz may all one day find themselves in Cooperstown, but for much of the Braves 14-year run, they all shared duties in one big league rotation.
While the Oakland A's engineered their own rendition of the "big three" several years later with Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder--their collective careers were far from comparison to the resumes of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz--all of whom retired with more than 200 wins.
With the bad taste of a historic collapse fresh on Atlanta's mind going into 2012, the Braves took their first step towards cleaning the slate by dealing starting pitcher Derek Lowe to Cleveland for a minor league arm.
Lowe struggled down the stretch in 2011 for Atlanta, joining other starters like Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson who were unable to replicate their first-half success.
Jurrjens and Hudson will likely retain rotation spots in 2012 along with Tommy Hanson and Mike Minor, but Atlanta has three young pitchers on the horizon that have been standouts in their minor league system and were all given their first taste of the big leagues in 2011.
The most heralded of the three is Juilo Teheran, ranked as the fourth best prospect in the minor leagues by MLB.com. Teheran led the Atlanta organization in 2011 with 15 wins (15-3), a 2.55 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 144 2/3 innings before a September call-up to the big leagues.
Making three starts for Atlanta in the last month of the season, Teheran wasn't nearly as effective at the major league level, finishing with a 5.03 ERA in 19 2/3 innings pitched.
While his debut wasn't a replica of the lights-out success Teheran has experienced in the minors, he was called up at the end of a season in which he had already amassed 140 innings pitched and may have had a tired arm.
Atlanta likely would have preferred to keep Teheran in the minors until 2012, but their late-season slide forced him into action for the Braves who were trying anything to cling to a diminishing division lead.
Their gamble didn't pay off with a postseason berth, but they were able to get a glimpse of Teheran and the possible foundation of their future rotation. Going into 2012, Teheran will have a chance to win the vacant rotation spot left by Derek Lowe and will likely be the man to do so.
Teheran has shot up prospect boards with an attractive 15-3 win-loss record, but Randall Delgado, another Atlanta pitching prospect called-up in September, flew under the prospect radar last season and pithced better than Teheran at the big league level in a brief September stint.
Delgado started a total of seven games for Atlanta in 2011, posting an ERA of 2.83 in 35 innings pitched. He earned the promotion to Atlanta after going 7-7 with a 3.88 ERA for Gwinnett (AAA), striking out 135 batters in 139 innings pitched.
While most have Teheran much higher on prospect lists, Delgado will have the chance to win the rotation spot over Teheran for the Braves in 2012, considering his strong showing in September last season.
Oddly enough, Delgado doesn't appear at all in MLB.com's Top 50 prospects despite having posted strong minor league numbers the past three seasons. Delgado has struck out 438 batters in 424 innings pitched, giving him the best strikout ratio of any Atlanta pitching prospect per nine innings.
That ranking could change, especially if Delgado wins the job over Teheran and continues his success at the major league level. It's also conceivable that Atlanta could use both in the rotation in 2012 if they feel they are ready.
Another young arm in the picture is Aroldys Vizcaino, also called up by Atlanta at the end of the 2011 season to help in the bullpen. Ranked as the 46th-best prospect in the minors by MLB.com, Vizcaino pitched in 17 games for the Braves out of the bullpen in 2011.
Projected as a starter in the future, Vizcaino is a year or two away from having a spot in the rotation but could be used in the meantime by Atlanta in the bullpen if needed.
With Craig Kimbrel, Johnny Venters and Eric O'Flahrety forming one of the best late-inning bullpen combinations in the game, the Braves may be better served letting Vizcaino develop longer in the minors while their current starting pitchers finish out their careers and/or contracts.
A year or two down the road, Atlanta could have Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino all in the big league rotation--what could be the newest rendition of the "big three" if they can all live up to their billing.
Throw in Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and a healthy Jair Jurrjens, there is little doubt the Braves have the makings of a formidable rotation that could be intact for years to come.
With arguably the best bullpen in the bigs already, couple with back-to-back Rookie of the Year candidates in Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, Atlanta has a young nucleus of superstars in the making who could trail blaze their own division streak down the road.

Projected Atlanta Pitching Rotation: 2015

Starters:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. Julio Teheran
3. Randall Delgado
4. Mike Minor
5. Arodys Vizcaino

Bullpen:
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Set-Up: Johnny Venters
Middle Relief: Eric O' Flaherty, Kris Medlen,Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy

With Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino all close to being a part of the Braves rotation, look for Atlanta to dangle starting pitchers Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson in trade talks while also listening to offers on Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy. The Braves reportedly turned down a trade with the Royals that would have sent Jurrjens and Martin Prado to Kansas City for outfield prospect Will Meyers--but talks stalled when the Royals did not want to include centerfielder Lorenzo Cain in the deal. That trade is all but dead now that Kansas City has traded starting centerfielder Melky Cabrera to the Giants, opening the position for Cain for next season and beyond. With plenty of teams still looking for another starting pitcher this offseason, Atlanta will have plenty of opportunities to look for another deal involving Jurrjens, and still may be able to hold onto the versitile Prado.
The Marlins, Cubs, and Red Sox are just a few teams in the market for pitching that have money to spend. With such a promising crop of pitchers on the horizon, it would make sense for Atlanta to clear some space in a crowded rotation while improving their roster in other areas.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Top 50 MLB Prospects entering 2012

Since being drafted first overall by the Nationals in 2010, Bryce Harper has appeared atop nearly every prospect board despite having just more than a year of pro ball under his belt. His uncanny bat speed, five-tool ability and instincts for the game have made him the most coveted prospect in recent memory. While Harper is the traditional "can't miss" prospect, his superstar billing has overshadowed many quality prospects who will forge major league careers of their own. Here is a look at the Top 50 prospects entering the 2012 season, taking into account players who have either not had enough at-bats to qualify for rookie standing and/or prospects who have not yet made their MLB debut prior to the 2012 season.

1. Bryce Harper (OF) Nationals

2. Matt Moore (LHP) Rays

3. Mike Trout (OF) Angels

4. Jesus Montero (C) Yankees

5. Julio Teheran (RHP) Braves

6. Shelby Miller (RHP) Cardinals

7. Manny Machado (SS) Orioles

8. Gary Brown (OF) Giants

9. Randall Delgado (RHP) Braves

10. Drew Pomeranz (LHP) Rockies

11. Yonder Alonso (1B) Reds

12. Will Meyers (OF) Royals

13. Tyler Skaggs (LHP) D-Backs

14. Jurickson Profar (SS) Rangers

15. Martin Perez (LHP) Rangers

16. Jacob Turner (RHP) Tigers

17. Devin Mesoraco (C) Reds

18. Michael Choice (OF) A's

19. Jameson Taillon (RHP) Pirates

20. Miguel Sano (3B) Twins

21. Matt Harvey (RHP) Mets

22. Grant Green (SS) A's

23. Manny Banuelos (LHP) Yankees

24. Chris Archer (RHP) Rays

25. Jonathan Singleton (1B) Astros

26. Zack Wheeler (RHP) Mets

27. Jose Iglecias (SS) Red Sox

28. Mike Olt (3B) Rangers

29. Joe Benson (OF) Twins

30. Jarrod Parker (RHP) D-Backs

31. Tony Sanchez (C) Pirates

32. Jarred Cosart (RHP) Astros

33. Casey Kelley (RHP) Padres

34. Starling Marte (OF) Pirates

35. Joe Wieland (RHP) Padres

36. Lars Anderson (1B) Red Sox

37. Jean Segura (2B) Angels

38. Christian Colon (SS) Royals

39. Cesar Puello (OF) Mets

40. Jedd Gyorko (3B) Padres

41. Aaron Hicks (OF) Twins

42. Anthony Gose (OF) Blue Jays

43. Yasmani Grandal (C) Reds

44. Zack Cox (3B) Cardinals

45. Billy Hamilton (SS) Reds

46. Brett Jackson (OF) Cubs

47. Travis D'Arnaud (C) Blue Jays

48. Nolan Arenado (3B) Rockies

49. Slade Heathcott (OF) Yankees

50. Robbie Erlin (LHP) Padres

*Below is a link to MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects list if you would like to see how they differ
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/index.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_players


Top Five MLB-ready Prospects--Closest to the show

1. Matt Moore (Rays) LHP--Likely member of the Rays young and talented 2012 rotation after sizzling debut in 2010
2. Mike Trout (Angels) OF--Will have to win the centerfield job over incumbant Peter Borgeois but has all the tools to do so
3. Jesus Montero (Yankees) C--With Jorge Posada on the way out, it will only be a short time before Montero is the Yankees backstop
4. Randall Delgado (Braves) RHP-- Derek Lowe's trade was Braves first step toward committing to young arms like Delgado
5. Drew Pomeranz (Rockies) LHP-- Had a hot and cold debut in 2010 but pitched well enough to be a rotation candidate for Colorado

 
Ten 2011 Draft Picks to watch:

1. Gerrit Cole (RHP) Pirates--Former UCLA ace sits at 97 mph with late movement and was the first player chosen in the 2011 draft

2. Danny Hultzen (LHP) Mariners--Two-way star in college at Virginia projects to be a overpowering lefty on the hill

3. Trevor Bauer (RHP) D-Backs--Overshadowed by Cole at UCLA, the smaller Bauer finished with more impressive numbers

4. Anthony Rendon (3B) Nationals--Pure hitter with great hands and wrist strength, could be a perenial .300 hitter if healthy

5. Sonny Gray (RHP) A's--Undersized hurler had outstanding college career at Vanderbilt--could join A's soon with Oakland rebuilding

6. Kolton Wong (2B) Cardinals--Line-drive hitter sprays ball to all fields--surprising power for 5'7" frame

7. Joe Panik (SS) Giants--With the jury still out on Brandon Crawford, SF took Panik in the first and have been impresed with his bat

8. Mikie Mahtook (OF) Rays--Gritty, hard-nosed centerfielder had a standout career at LSU and has had strong showing in AFL action

9. C.J. Cron (1B) Angels--Another Angels first baseman with power in the mold of Mark Trumbo--Cron's pop comes from the left side

10. Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF) Red Sox--Injuries cost Bradley a higher place in the draft, but the two-time NCAA champion is a gamer