Following the careers of former highly ranked prospects is often a good way to formulate more accurate rankings for the present and future. Talent can be over hyped or under appreciated for a variety of reasons, but using hindsight to review what type of players thrived at the major league level helps make future projections.
While Baseball America is an incredibly detailed and thorough publication, even they often overlook or overrate various prospects due to their place in the draft, tools or current organization. Players like Ryan Braun, Joey Votto and Jacoby Ellsbury weren't even considered top-25 prospects as recently as a few years ago, yet they have risen to become some of the game's brightest starts.
There have also been plenty of overrated players who haven't nearly reached expectations set by their respective clubs after they were drafted and/or signed. Pitchers like Homer Bailey, Andrew Miller and Franklin Morales tend to dominate the list--but there are also plenty of positional players to consider--Brandon Wood, Travis Snyder and Dexter Fowler are just a few who haven't lived up to their billings.
Here is a look at how Baseball America has ranked prospects the last five years,n followed by analysis of how some of their projections have turned out.
2006
Baseball America's Top Five in 2006:
1. Delmon Young (OF)--Young has time to reach his full potential but hasn't been close
2. Justin Upton (OF)--Has lived up to the hype and could be one of the best power hitters in the NL
3. Brandon Wood (SS)--Once thought to be the next Cal Ripken Jr. by an opposing coach--not exactly
4. Jeremy Hermida (OF)--Injuries have held him back but even when healthy is nowhere near a top-5
5. Stephen Drew (SS)--Has been a solid SS for Arizona but not the perennial All-Star they were hoping
Overrated in 2006:
#1,3,4,5: Only Justin Upton looks like he could end up being worthy of his top-5 billing in 2006
#9. Lastings Milledge (OF)--Ranked ahead of Matt Cain, Prince Fielder and many others in 2006
#14. Andy Marte (3B)--Thought to have 30+ home run potential, never was able to hit for average
Underrated in 2006:
#25. Troy Tulowitzki (SS)--Whom would you rather have? Tulowitzki or Drew? Not a tough decision
#30. Hanley Ramirez (SS)--Tools alone should have garnered a higher grade--future MVP candidate
#49. Ryan Braun (OF)--Never was a "can't miss prospect." Now is a "can't miss" major leaguer
#57. Jared Weaver (RHP)--Came into his own in 2011 and could be a force in the AL for the Angels
#68. Cole Hamels (LHP)--Lightly regarded prospect in '06 is now a cog in the best MLB rotation
#89: Andre Ethier (OF)--Becoming one of the purest hitters in the game but wasn't on the radar in '06
#96. Matt Kemp (OF)--Signed a $160 million dollar contract and threatened the triple crown in 2011.
2007
Baseball America's Top Five in 2007:
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP)--Japanese import has been oft injured in Boston--career in jeopardy
2. Alex Gordon (3B)--Has started to blossom recently but still hasn't lived up to former top-5 billing
3. Delmon Young (OF)--Didn't work out with TB or Minn. long-term, may have a home in Detroit
4. Phillip Hughes (RHP)--Yankees still hoping he can be the prospect they were hoping for
5. Homer Bailey (RHP)--As close to a bust as it gets, Bailey has to hope for a career turnaround
Overrated in 2007:
#8. Brandon Wood (SS)--Ranked seven spots ahead of Troy Tulowitzki in '07--enough said
#10. Andrew Miller (LHP)--Former first rounder from UNC is yet to establish himself anywhere
#19 Andy LaRoche (3B)--Top prospect with the Dodgers is hoping to get second chance for Pirates
Underrated in 2007:
#11. Tim Lincecum (RHP)--Ranked behind Matsuzaka, Hughes, Bailey and Miller in 2007
#24 Clayton Kershaw (LHP)--2011 Cy Young winner was just another young lefty a few years ago
#33 Jacoby Ellsbury (OF)--Was ranked behind 11 other outfielders in '07--things changed quickly
#63 Miguel Montero (C)--Has become one of the best offensive catchers in the NL for the D-backs
2008
Baseball America's Top Five in 2008:
1. Jay Bruce (OF)--Starting to develop into a legitimate 40 home run threat with other plus tools
2. Evan Longoria (3B)--Cornerstone of the Rays lineup has had more than a few big hits in the show
3. Joba Chamberlain (RHP)--Has been up and down since rookie season but needs to stay healthy
4. Clay Buchholz (RHP)--Has been one of the more reliable starters in Boston for a few years now
5. Colby Rasmus (OF)--Loaded arsenal of tools allowed him to shoot through St. Louis organization
Overrated in 2008:
#8. Franklin Morales (LHP)--Had strong showings early in career for COL, not much since
#9. Homer Bailey (RHP)--Highly regarded pitching prospect for years never materialized for the Reds
#20. Fernando Martinez (OF)--Dominican signing is yet to make an impact at the major league level
Underrated in 2008:
#22. Carlos Gonzalez (OF)--Has put up better numbers to start career than Bruce and Rasmus.
#41. Austin Jackson (OF)--Former Yankees prospect has thrived in Detroit with his speed and glove
#44. Joey Votto (1B)--Didn't break the top-40 in '09 but could be an MVP candidate for years
#100. Drew Stubbs (OF)--Barely made the list in '09 but has put up solid numbers in CF for the Reds
2009
Baseball America's Top Five in 2009:
1. Matt Wieters (C)--Has turned out to be a solid backstop for Baltimore with a bright future
2. David Price (LHP)--From top prospect to top of the Tampa Bay rotation
3. Colby Rasmus (OF)--Didn't work out in St. Louis but still could be a force in Toronto if he stays
4. Tommy Hanson (RHP)--When healthy, one of the better right-handers in the National League
5. Jason Heyward (OF)--Runner up for rookie of the year in 2010 had minor sophomore slump
Overrated in 2009:
#6. Travis Snider (OF)--Hasn't lived up to his top-10 billing, may be out of a starting job in Toronto
#8. Cameron Maybin (OF)--Floundered in Florida but may have a rebirth in the making in San Diego
#15: Dexter Fowler (OF)--Still trying to land an everyday job in Colorado--could be on the way out
Underrated in 2009:
#16. Mike Stanton (OF)--Ranked behind Snider, Maybin and Fowler to name a few--not anymore
#33 Andrew McCuthen (OF)--Didn't break the top-30 in 2009 but has become a five-tool threat
#81. Brett Lawrie (IF)--Started in the Brewers organization but had a great rookie year in Toronto
#87. Freddie Freeman (1B)--Hard to imagine a rookie of the year candidate could be buried at No. 87
#97: Gio Gonzalez (LHP)--Barely broke the top-100 in '09--one of the best lefties in the A.L in 2012
2010
Baseball America's Top Five in 2010:
1. Jason Heyward (OF)--If not for Buster Posey's great rookie season, would have been 2010 R.O.Y.
2. Stephen Strasburg (RHP)--Sensational debut was cut short by injury but no doubt he can pitch
3. Mike Stanton (OF)--Five tools + great numbers + tremendous work ethic = Potential Hall of Famer
4. Jesus Montero (C)--Future replacement for Jorge Posada has been a force at the plate in the minors
5. Brian Matusz (LHP)--Hasn't dominated since being called up by Baltimore but is still learning
Overrated in 2010:
#8. Pedro Alvarez (3B)--Started the season with the Pirates but hit around .200 before being demoted
#12. Alcides Escobar (SS)--No doubt he can play defense but was ranked ahead of Starlin Castro
#23. Tyler Matzek (LHP)--Rockies First-round pick has been getting knocked around in the minors
Underrated in 2010:
#35. Matt Moore (LHP)--Once an eighth-round pick, Moore has jumped 30 spots since last year's list
#32. Freddie Freeman (1B)--For the second year in a row, Atlanta has a R.O.Y candidate on offense
#45 Yonder Alonso (1B)--May be traded with Votto at first for the Reds, but proved he can hit in '11
#51 Julio Teheran (RHP)--Didn't break the top-50 in '10 but shot to top-10 after 15 wins in the minors
#85. Mike Trout (OF)--Now a top-3 prospect, Trout is just a year removed from being near the end
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